Food and fertilizers under pressure: experts in LatAm warn about the effects of the war in the Middle East
A new study warns that the increase in fertilizer prices —with references to recent rises in inputs such as urea—, in addition to the high dependence on imports in the region, could translate into pressure on food prices.
The conflict in the Middle East has now completed two months, generating growing global concerns over rising oil prices and the risk of increasing inflation. In Latin America, a region not immune to these dynamics, attention is beginning to focus on the possible impact on the trade of food and other essential products, with experts warning of an imminent increase in prices.
According to recent research by the Social Research Center, geopolitical instability in the Middle East could significantly influence supply chains, prices, and the availability of key agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers, whose cost is linked to energy costs. Experts warn that the increase in the price of these inputs could raise agricultural production costs and put pressure on food prices.
Specialists agree that one of the main risk factors in Latin America is the high dependence on imported inputs; even the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that the continuation of the war in Iran increases risks for global food security, especially in low-income countries dependent on imports.
“In the case of Colombia, this vulnerability is relevant, as it still has an economy dependent on commodities: in 2025, 38.2% of exports corresponded to fuels and extractive products, and in February 2026 this group represented 33.3% of the total. At a social and economic level, the main risk is the deterioration of the cost of living,” said Andres Michielin, B2B alliance manager at Viventa and one of those consulted in the research.
In other countries such as Peru, they warn that the impact is already reflected in the increase in fertilizers and its direct effect on key crops. They point out that inputs such as urea have registered very significant increases, which raises the production costs of basic products such as corn, rice, and potatoes, among others.
In addition, in Mexico experts state that there is a scenario of pressure for both producers and local companies, marked by the increase in input costs, inflation, and a complex exchange rate environment. This, they mention, could also end up impacting the final prices of food and other essential products in household basic baskets.
On the other hand, in Venezuela concerns point to the possibility that the war in the Middle East could increase pressure on the already complex situation faced by the South American country, also marked by close U.S. oversight. However, other specialists in the country note that, as a major oil producer, the country could even benefit from rising crude prices. Even so, they warn that “with an industry paralyzed due to lack of maintenance and operating at only 20% of its capacity, the benefits would be minimal.”
In general, specialists warn that this scenario could represent a risk to food security in some countries in the region, especially among the most vulnerable households, where food represents a larger share of spending. However, this impact, they explain, does not translate immediately to the final consumer, but occurs progressively, as increases in fuel prices make transportation, logistics, and subsequently the costs of food production and distribution more expensive.
On this point, it is important to highlight that recently the United Nations (UN) warned that millions of people could face acute hunger if the conflict with Iran did not ease by mid-2026, as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the growing risks to traffic in the Red Sea. The World Food Programme (WFP) noted that this scenario would raise the number of people in acute food insecurity to 363 million.
According to recent research by the Social Research Center, geopolitical instability in the Middle East could significantly influence supply chains, prices, and the availability of key agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers, whose cost is linked to energy costs. Experts warn that the increase in the price of these inputs could raise agricultural production costs and put pressure on food prices.
Specialists agree that one of the main risk factors in Latin America is the high dependence on imported inputs; even the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that the continuation of the war in Iran increases risks for global food security, especially in low-income countries dependent on imports.
“In the case of Colombia, this vulnerability is relevant, as it still has an economy dependent on commodities: in 2025, 38.2% of exports corresponded to fuels and extractive products, and in February 2026 this group represented 33.3% of the total. At a social and economic level, the main risk is the deterioration of the cost of living,” said Andres Michielin, B2B alliance manager at Viventa and one of those consulted in the research.
In other countries such as Peru, they warn that the impact is already reflected in the increase in fertilizers and its direct effect on key crops. They point out that inputs such as urea have registered very significant increases, which raises the production costs of basic products such as corn, rice, and potatoes, among others.
In addition, in Mexico experts state that there is a scenario of pressure for both producers and local companies, marked by the increase in input costs, inflation, and a complex exchange rate environment. This, they mention, could also end up impacting the final prices of food and other essential products in household basic baskets.
On the other hand, in Venezuela concerns point to the possibility that the war in the Middle East could increase pressure on the already complex situation faced by the South American country, also marked by close U.S. oversight. However, other specialists in the country note that, as a major oil producer, the country could even benefit from rising crude prices. Even so, they warn that “with an industry paralyzed due to lack of maintenance and operating at only 20% of its capacity, the benefits would be minimal.”
In general, specialists warn that this scenario could represent a risk to food security in some countries in the region, especially among the most vulnerable households, where food represents a larger share of spending. However, this impact, they explain, does not translate immediately to the final consumer, but occurs progressively, as increases in fuel prices make transportation, logistics, and subsequently the costs of food production and distribution more expensive.
On this point, it is important to highlight that recently the United Nations (UN) warned that millions of people could face acute hunger if the conflict with Iran did not ease by mid-2026, as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the growing risks to traffic in the Red Sea. The World Food Programme (WFP) noted that this scenario would raise the number of people in acute food insecurity to 363 million.
How should governments in the region respond to the current conflict situation?
Overall, experts agree that the vulnerability of the Global South to external shocks is not circumstantial, but structural, and that as long as these economies continue to depend on primary exports and imported inputs, they will remain exposed to crises they do not generate but must endure.
In this regard, they point out that the response of governments in the region should focus on proper coordination between government, the private sector, and producers in order to reduce the impact. “To overcome this crisis with the greatest possible composure, dialogue is essential to coordinate policies, plans, and actions among state institutions, transport associations, food production, and society; only in this way can we identify, plan, and resolve fundamental problems,” emphasized Mateo González, Colombian economist at Finagro.
The call from respondents is clear: progress must be made toward greater autonomy by reducing dependence on external markets in strategic sectors such as energy, fertilizers, and food. In addition, local production must be strengthened and trade partners diversified in order to reduce exposure to future international conflicts and their possible repercussions.
In this regard, they point out that the response of governments in the region should focus on proper coordination between government, the private sector, and producers in order to reduce the impact. “To overcome this crisis with the greatest possible composure, dialogue is essential to coordinate policies, plans, and actions among state institutions, transport associations, food production, and society; only in this way can we identify, plan, and resolve fundamental problems,” emphasized Mateo González, Colombian economist at Finagro.
The call from respondents is clear: progress must be made toward greater autonomy by reducing dependence on external markets in strategic sectors such as energy, fertilizers, and food. In addition, local production must be strengthened and trade partners diversified in order to reduce exposure to future international conflicts and their possible repercussions.